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The World of Child 6 Billion
POPULATION GROWTHPresentation GuideDiscussion Openers
1. What information is the graph presenting?
2. What conclusions can you make from the data provided?
3. Which of those conclusions are based on fact and which are inferred?
4. What further information would you need to test your conclusions?
view full-size graph
| | Population Size and Rate of Growth [Graph 1] - The rate of world population growth (indicated by the line on the graph) peaked in the late 1960s and has declined since.
- At the same time, world population (shown by the bars in the graph), estimated at 3 billion in 1960, continues to increase, reaching 6 billion in 1999, and could reach almost 9 billion by 2050, according to the United Nations (UN) medium scenario projections.
- Thus, while the rate of population growth is in decline, the absolute number of people continues to grow. The increase in total number is largely the result of three factors:
1. a high concentration of people in the childbearing ages;
2. birth rates that are above the number needed for couples to replace themselves. (If we exclude China, women in the less developed countries are having 3.8 children, on average.);
3. continuing increases in life expectancy, particularly in countries where life expectancy is relatively low.
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| | Population Growth Since World Population Reached 5 Billion [Graph 2] This table shows the population size of the six developing countries highlighted in The World of Child 6 Billion and in the U.S. when world population reached 5 billion in 1987; the population size of these countries in 1999 when world population reached 6 billion; and the percent each country increased over the 12-year period. - The growth of world population from 5 billion to 6 billion represents 20 percent growth from 1987 to 1999. Overall, countries in the less developed regions* of the world grew 24 percent from 1987 to 1999; countries in the more developed regions** grew about 5 percent, on average.
- These trends indicate that Child 6 Billion is most likely to have been born in a developing country. India is the country most likely because more births occur in India than in any other country.
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Discussion - How large do you expect world population will grow by the time Child 6 Billion reaches your age? (Compare your answer to projections made by the U.S. Census Bureau found at: http://www.census.gov.)
Sources: UN, World Population Prospects: The 1998 Revision; and PRB, 2000 World Population Data Sheet.
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