Population Reference Bureau Policy Seminar Series

Topic: "Are We Losing Ground? Levels and Emerging Trends in Infant and Child Mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa"

Speaker: Kenneth Hill, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health

Time: Wednesday, March 19, 2003, 12 noon to 1:30 p.m.

Place: PRB, 1875 Connecticut Avenue, NW, Suite 520, Washington, DC (Universal North Building at Connecticut and T Streets; Dupont Circle — north exit — metro station) Please bring your lunch. Coffee, juice, and soft drinks will be provided.

Infant and child mortality have declined sharply in all parts of the less-developed world over the last 40 years, but the rates of decline have been slowest — and the levels currently are highest — in sub-Saharan Africa. Indeed, infant and child mortality have increased in some countries during the 1990s, with the HIV epidemic, deteriorating economic conditions, and collapsing health services all serving as possible contributors.

In his talk, Dr. Hill will review levels and trends in mortality for children under age 5 in sub-Saharan Africa since 1960, and will relate changes to changes in per capita income. While analyses show consistent declines in under-5 mortality with increases in per capita income, recent adverse trends in infant and child mortality suggest the influence of factors other than income. Using Kenya's experience as an example, Dr. Hill will explore the contribution of HIV to these troubling trends, using data from two Demographic and Health Surveys combined with information from the national HIV prevalence surveillance system.

Kenneth Hill is professor of population studies at Johns Hopkins University's Bloomberg School of Public Health, as well as director of the Hopkins Population Center. His research interests lie in the measurement of demographic outcomes from incomplete data, and in the factors responsible for changes in fertility, mortality and migration — with special emphasis on the world's less developed regions. Prior to arriving at Hopkins, Dr. Hill worked at the National Research Council, where he focused on demographic estimation for less developed countries. He also has worked with the United Nations on population issues in Latin America, and with the National Statistical Office of Uganda, where he helped in the planning and execution of that country's population census of 1969. Dr. Hill has a Ph.D. in demography from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.